Cairo, Egypt :
Egypt is asserting a renewed leadership role in the Middle East, leveraging the latest Gaza cease‑fire framework to re-establish itself as a key diplomatic actor after years of relative decline.
Context
Over the past decades, Egypt’s once-dominant regional influence had diminished amid domestic economic woes and the rising prominence of Gulf states. Yet its unique geography (bordering Gaza via Sinai), intelligence contacts, and historic role as a mediator make Cairo indispensable in any Israel-Palestinian process.
What is happening
Following the Gaza cease-fire, Egypt hosted high-level negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh. Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad travelled to Israel and conducted shuttle diplomacy aiming to stabilise the situation. Egypt’s proposal includes temporary Palestinian governance of Gaza, Egyptian-led police training, and international stabilisation mechanisms.
Why it matters
- Mediator role regained: Cairo is positioning itself once again as the bridge between Israel, Hamas, the Palestinians and Western actors — something few states can credibly claim.
- Geopolitical leverage: Egypt’s involvement gives it leverage across Syrian, Lebanese and Sudanese theatres too, as it seeks to shape regional security architecture.
- Humanitarian & reconstruction front: Egypt is expected to host a major reconstruction conference for Gaza and drive the aid flow — which places it at the centre of relief and rebuilding efforts.
Challenges ahead
- Sustaining the cease-fire: Egypt will have to ensure the truce holds on the ground, a difficult task given internal Palestinian politics, Israeli security concerns and ongoing violence.
- Economic pressures: With its own economic difficulties, Egypt may struggle to fund reconstruction and stabilisation efforts at scale without external backing.
- Balancing act: Cairo must navigate US, Gulf, and Israeli interests while maintaining credibility with Palestinian factions and regional actors.
What to watch
- The outcomes of the coming Cairo conference on Gaza reconstruction and who funds and leads various initiatives.
- Whether Egypt can expand its mediation beyond Gaza, for example in Lebanon (relations with Hezbollah) and Sudan (where it is helping broker a truce).
- The degree to which the cease-fire evolves into a durable stabilisation mechanism and what role Egypt continues to play.
